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8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

Updated NWCG Standards for Water Scooping Operations, PMS 518

Date: December 19, 2024
Contact: Water Scooper Operations Unit

The NWCG Standards for Water Scooping Operations, PMS 518 establishes the standards for dispatching, utilizing, and coordinating water scooping aircraft on interagency wildland fires. These standards should be used in conjunction with the NWCG Standards for Aerial Supervision (SAS), PMS 505, and any local, state, or geographic/regional water scooping plans.

References:

NWCG Standards for Water Scooping Operations, PMS 518

Updated NWCG Standards for Aerial Supervision, PMS 505

Date: December 19, 2024
Contact: Interagency Aerial Supervision Subcommittee

The Interagency Aerial Supervision Subcommittee has updated the NWCG Standards for Aerial Supervision, PMS 505. PMS 505 establishes standards for aerial supervision operations for national interagency wildland fire operations. 

References:

NWCG Standards for Aerial Supervision, PMS 505

New Job Aids Available: Packing Lists for Wildland Fire Fireline Personnel and Support Staff, J-101 and J-102

Date: December 3, 2024
Contact: NWCG TRAINING

Two new job aids are now available: Packing List for Wildland Fire Fireline Personnel, J-101 and Packing List for Wildland Fire Support Personnel, J-102, should serve as a baseline for items needed on a wildland fire assignment. These lists will help personnel prepare for a 14 to 21-day assignment on the fireline or in a support role.

References:

Job Aid Catalog

NWCG Packing List for Wildland Fire Fireline Personnel, J-101

NWCG Packing List for Wildland Fire Support Staff, J-102

NWCG Equipment Technology Committee Releases Safety Warning: 24-001 Stihl Chainsaw Toolless Fuel Cap Spill Prevention

Date: November 14, 2024
Contact: Equipment Technology Committee

The Equipment Technology Committee (ETC) has released Safety Warning: 24-001 Stihl Chainsaw Toolless Fuel Cap Spill Prevention. Misaligned toolless fuel caps on Stihl chainsaws have led to recurring fuel spillage, fuel ignition, and burn injuries during wildland fire management operations.

This Safety Warning is intended to highlight the details and recommended procedures for the installation of a Stihl chainsaw toolless fuel cap, as well as how to identify and correct a misaligned, damaged, or broken fuel cap to help prevent fuel spillage.

References:

NWCG Safety Warning: 24-001 Stihl Chainsaw Toolless Fuel Cap Spill Prevention

Advertencia de equipos 24-001: Prevención de derrames de la tapa de combustible sin herramientas de la motosierra Stihl

NWCG Alerts