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Firefighter Math: 8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

New Aircraft Flight Schedule Form, PMS 249

Date:  April 17, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: National Coordination System Committee

A new publication from the National Coordination System Committee (NCSC) is now available. The NWCG Aircraft Flight Schedule Form, PMS 249, will be used for aviation crews and dispatch to share flight information that is needed for resource tracking, and if needed, for emergency procedures.

For further details, please contact your NCSC representative. 

References:

NCSC Memo 26-01: Implementation of NWCG Aircraft Flight Schedule Form, PMS 249

NWCG Aircraft Flight Schedule Form, PMS 249

New Glossary Term for Review

Date:  April 15, 2026
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Please contact: Data Standards and Terminology Board (DSTB)

The Data Standards and Terminology Board is requesting feedback on a new glossary term: Resource Protection Measure (RPM).

The proposed definition is: Practical guidance provided for incident personnel in a manner in which incident objectives can be achieved while reducing impacts to identified resources across the landscape. RPMs are informed by, but not restricted to, Minimum Impact Strategies and Tactics (MIST).

Please review, share with your subgroups, and provide feedback as appropriate through the following form: Request Feedback The comment period will close May 10, 2026.

Thank you for your engagement in the NWCG glossary process – your participation is key to our success.

References:

Glossary Request Feedback

Quarter Three Materials for the 2025-2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign Now Available

Date:  April 1, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Committee

NWCG is excited to announce that Quarter Three materials for the 2025/2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign are now available. This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

Quarter Three materials focus on Leadership Level 3: Leader of People (Develop Intent). Leadership Level 3 is where your values, your team, and your influence come together. Leaders of People put their teams first, build trust, and lead with authenticity. They mentor future leaders and shape decisions up and down the chain.

References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

Leadership Committee

WFSTAR 2026 Core Components Module Package and 2025 Fire Year in Review Now Available

Date:  March 23, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Joe Schindel

The 2026 Core Components Module Package for RT-130, Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR) and the 2025 Fire Year in Review are now available on the NWCG website. The 2026 Core Components Module Package provides all content needed to deliver RT-130.

References:

2026 Core Components Module Package

2025 Fire Year in Review Module