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Firefighter Math: 8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups

Date:  July 10, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Equipment and Technology Subcommittee

The Logistics/Equipment Management Committee (LMC) has released Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups. This advisory highlights multiple U.S. Forest Service regions reporting front driveline joint failure incidents.

This advisory recommends firefighters and fire managers to: 

  • Follow all Ram-issued inspection, maintenance, and service guidance for front driveline joints. 
  • Consider installing a driveline loop. 
  • Coordinate with fleet managers and service providers to determine the most appropriate driveline loop kit for each pickup.

For further details, please refer to the complete advisory.

References:

Equipment Advisory 26-001: Potential Front Driveline Joint Failure on 2018 and Earlier Ram Pickups

Technical Service Bulletin: 03-002-21

NEW! NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900

Date:  July 9, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: NWCG Staff

NWCG is excited to announce the publication of the NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900.

The new publication establishes general, consistent, and uniform standards for conducting business with the National Wildfire Coordinating Group.

References:

NWCG Standard Operating Procedures, PMS 900

Quarter Four Materials for the 2025-2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign Now Available

Date:  July 8, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: Leadership Development Subcommittee

NWCG is excited to announce that Fourth Quarter materials for the 2025/2026 Wildland Fire Leadership Campaign are now available. This annual initiative offers all students of leadership and wildland fire management an opportunity to engage with essential leadership skills and knowledge needed to lead effectively in dynamic environments.

Quarter Four materials focus on Leadership Level 4: Leader of Leaders (Provide Direction). Leadership Level 4 is where you are setting the conditions for others to do things well, even when you are not present. This quarter focuses on equipping experienced leaders with skills to provide direction, build trust across teams, and foster strong decision making. 

References:

2025/2026 NWCG Leadership Campaign - Leadership Levels

Wildland Fire Leadership Development Program

Leadership Development Subcommittee

2026 Week of Remembrance

Date:  June 30, 2026
Questions? 
Please contact: 6 Minutes for Safety Subcommittee

As we approach the 2026 Week of Remembrance (WOR), June 30–July 6, we dedicate this time to reflect on past incidents from 2016 and honor the fallen through learning. Since its inception in 2014, WOR has honored wildland firefighters who made the ultimate sacrifice while encouraging critical discussions that reinforce lessons learned.

Throughout the week, we encourage thoughtful and generative conversations that promote a culture of continuous learning and safety.

References:

2026 Week of Remembrance: Letter to Leadership

Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center