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8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

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RMC Memo 25-01: Summary of Updates to Safety Officer Positions

Date: April 9, 2025
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The Risk Management Committee (RMC) serves as the position steward for all Safety Officer incident positions and continues to improve position standards, training, and naming conventions. The implementation of Complex Incident Management (CIM) required changes to position titles. RMC collaborated with the NWCG Incident Position Standards Committee (IPSC) to propose and implement these updates. 

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RMC Memo 25-01: Summary of Updates to Safety Officer Positions 

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Updated, NWCG Guide to Wildland Fire Origin and Cause Determination, PMS 412

Date: April 8, 2025
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PMS 412 provides guidance for wildland fire investigations. This guide outlines recommended procedures, practices, techniques, and methods to promote a systematic approach. The last update to this publication was in 2016.

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NWCG Guide to Wildland Fire Origin and Cause Determination PMS 412

Updated NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations, PMS 508

Date: March 31, 2025
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The updated NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations (SABO), PMS 508 standardizes operations and procedures at interagency airtanker bases to ensure safe, efficient, and effective operations in support of interagency goals and objectives.

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NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations, PMS 508

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Date: March 14, 2025
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The 2025 Core Component Module Package for RT-130, Wildland Fire Safety Training Annual Refresher (WFSTAR) and the 2024 Fire Year in Review are now available on the NWCG website. The 2025 Core Component Module Package provides all content needed to deliver RT-130.

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2025 Core Component Module Package

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